Help Notes: What is the forecast for period 15 using the 3-week moving average? Round to the nearest whole number Time period Actual Demand 1 419.1 2 986.7 3...

Monday, 29 June 2015

What is the forecast for period 15 using the 3-week moving average? Round to the nearest whole number Time period Actual Demand 1 419.1 2 986.7 3...

Moving Average Forecast of Order k is ,

$\displaystyle{F}_{{{t}+{1}}}=\frac{{{Y}_{{t}}+{Y}_{{{t}-{1}}}+\ldots\ldots\ldots..+{Y}_{{{t}-{k}+{1}}}}}{{k}}$

where, $\displaystyle{F}_{{{t}+{1}}}$ = forecast of the time series for period t+1

$\displaystyle{Y}_{{t}}$ = actual value of the time series in period t

We have to calculate the Forecast for the period 15 and the order is 3 ( 3-week moving average)

$\displaystyle\therefore{F}_{{15}}=\frac{{{Y}_{{14}}+{Y}_{{13}}+{Y}_{{12}}}}{{3}}$

$\displaystyle{F}_{{15}}=\frac{{{2139.9}+{3399}+{3629.4}}}{{3}}$

$\displaystyle{F}_{{15}}=\frac{{9168.3}}{{3}}$

$\displaystyle{F}_{{15}}={3056.1}$

Round to the nearest whole number,

$\displaystyle{F}_{{15}}={3056}$

So, the forecast for the period 15 is...

Moving Average Forecast of Order k is ,

$\displaystyle{F}_{{{t}+{1}}}=\frac{{{Y}_{{t}}+{Y}_{{{t}-{1}}}+\ldots\ldots\ldots..+{Y}_{{{t}-{k}+{1}}}}}{{k}}$

where, $\displaystyle{F}_{{{t}+{1}}}$ = forecast of the time series for period t+1

$\displaystyle{Y}_{{t}}$ = actual value of the time series in period t

We have to calculate the Forecast for the period 15 and the order is 3 ( 3-week moving average)

$\displaystyle\therefore{F}_{{15}}=\frac{{{Y}_{{14}}+{Y}_{{13}}+{Y}_{{12}}}}{{3}}$

$\displaystyle{F}_{{15}}=\frac{{{2139.9}+{3399}+{3629.4}}}{{3}}$

$\displaystyle{F}_{{15}}=\frac{{9168.3}}{{3}}$

$\displaystyle{F}_{{15}}={3056.1}$

Round to the nearest whole number,

$\displaystyle{F}_{{15}}={3056}$

So, the forecast for the period 15 is 3056.

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